The new CAFE rules for crossovers could change a surprising label in 2030: whether the federal fuel-economy program counts a vehicle as a car or a light truck. That classification affects an automaker’s fleet target. It does not change the vehicle’s body, registration, advertised tow rating or the EPA MPG number printed on the window sticker.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration released a final Corporate Average Fuel Economy rule Sept. 28, revising standards for model years 2022 through 2031. Its projected combined fleet requirement is 34.9 mpg by model year 2031, down from the 50.4 mpg projection associated with the agency’s 2024 rule. Neither figure is a requirement for any one Camry, CR-V, RAV4 or three-row family SUV.
Why have crossovers counted as light trucks?
CAFE divides vehicles into passenger-car and non-passenger, or light-truck, fleets. Some crossovers and SUVs have qualified for the latter through features that the agency says do not necessarily reflect a cargo or off-road purpose. Until model year 2029, one route lets certain three-row vehicles qualify when the rear seats fold or stow to create a flat cargo surface. NHTSA is removing that route beginning in model year 2030.
Another route has relied on clearance characteristics. From 2030, a vehicle using the off-highway route must meet specified approach, breakover and departure angles and running clearance. Having AWD does not, by itself, satisfy that test. The rule does not declare every crossover a car: a vehicle may qualify as a light truck through another route.
The new towing-plus-payload test
NHTSA added a light-duty work factor for model year 2030 and later vehicles. It adds a vehicle’s payload capacity to its trailer weight rating, with a qualifying threshold of 8,500 pounds. The trailer rating on this pathway is determined under SAE J2807. Other routes remain, including an open cargo bed or genuine off-highway characteristics.
This is a regulatory classification test for manufacturers, not a minimum towing capacity for shoppers. NHTSA originally proposed a weighted formula and a 2028 start. It changed the formula and gave automakers two more years in the final rule. Without variant-level data, it is premature to name specific crossover trims that will switch categories.
Why the light-truck MPG average drops in 2030
NHTSA estimates that lighter crossovers moving to the passenger-car fleet will leave heavier pickups and larger SUVs in the truck group. Its modeled required light-truck average moves from 30.6 mpg in 2029 to 26.2 mpg in 2030, while the modeled overall car-and-truck average rises from 32.6 to 34.6 mpg. That apparent truck drop reflects a different mix of vehicles and revised footprint-based curves. It is not a forecast that each SUV will lose 4.4 mpg overnight.
The agency projects the classification shift will change the fleet split from roughly 70% light trucks and 30% passenger cars to roughly 30% light trucks and 70% passenger cars. Those are agency estimates about regulatory categories, not a prediction that Americans will stop buying SUVs.
Could a new car cost less but use more gas?
The Transportation Department promotes a roughly $1,300 reduction in average new-vehicle cost. The underlying rule estimates $1,289 less regulatory technology cost per model year 2031 vehicle than its no-action scenario, assuming savings are passed on to buyers. It does not guarantee a lower transaction price for any car or SUV.
NHTSA also models 4.6% more gasoline consumption through 2050 than the no-action case under the new rule, even as it expects absolute fuel use to fall over time. That is the tradeoff for buyers to watch: a potentially lower upfront technology cost against potentially higher fuel spending. Neither national estimate calculates the ownership cost of a particular vehicle. Check the actual window-sticker MPG and your own driving before deciding between a gasoline model and a hybrid.
What happens to hybrids and EVs?
The rule does not ban or require either. It ends trading between manufacturers of CAFE credits earned beginning in model year 2028, while allowing previously earned credits to be used under transition rules. Automakers can still choose to offer fuel-efficient gasoline cars, hybrids and EVs. This action changes NHTSA’s fuel-economy standards; EPA emissions standards are a separate set of rules.
The final rule is signed and awaiting Federal Register publication. It takes effect 60 days after that publication. For shoppers, the key dates are model year 2028 for newly earned credit trading and model year 2030 for crossover classification.
Sources: NHTSA final rule (signed Sept. 25, 2026); DOT announcement (Sept. 28, 2026); NHTSA 2024 rule summary.
